Get ready for an exciting journey into the vibrant world of Solana NFTs! In this newsletter, I will delve deep into the alpha points of the Solana ecosystem and bring you exclusive interviews with key players within this space. I will provide you with expert technical and fundamental analysis to help you hone your trading skills and grow your knowledge of this dynamic space. Each newsletter will have a specific theme to keep you engaged and informed. Join me and discover the thrill of NFTs on Solana!
🛑This newsletter is for entertainment purposes only, none of this is financial advice🛑
Welcome to "The Alpha Insight," your go-to source for all things NFT trading and investing on Solana! This week we will be putting all the tools we have learnt into use and start charting out using all the knowledge we have learnt. We will also go over the basics of how the USD value of Sol affects the markets. But that's not all - we'll also be showcasing our "project of the week." Join me on this journey to becoming a master of NFT trading and investing.
(Download and view in PDF format for a better reading experience)
Swing Trade - Shorter-term trading with the intent of buying low and selling high within an assets price trend.
Timeframe - The total time set for each candle’s duration.
Chart - A graphical representation of historical price movements.
TA - Technical Analysis
FA - Fundamental Analysis
AMA - Ask me anything
DYOR - Do your own research
DD - Due Diligence (Research)
Moon Bag - The intent of holding something in the hope the price increases drastically (Holding to the moon!)
Undercutting - The act of multiple people listing NFTs for less than the floor price in the hope of a quicker sale.
Solana Price Action - How it affects NFTs
In the last week, the market has gone from being extremely bullish to this strange cloud of neither bullish nor bearish. With the Solana USD value increasing rapidly, the NFT market seems to have taken a hit, but it can be a confusing time as to why this happens. If ‘1 Sol = 1 Sol’ then why do I have less Sol in my portfolio now than before? Let’s attempt to get an understanding of how all these pieces come together
I remember trading back when Solana was at $100. NFTs were still a thriving ecosystem with projects rising and falling. Since that time almost a year ago, all we have known is the macro bear market blues as Solana slowly fell to under $10. But I would argue that the ecosystem was stronger and bigger at $10 than it ever had been prior. Fast forward to now and the price has gone from $16 to $25 in 48 hours. A 47% increase in a short space of time affects the NFT market massively, but why?
The NFT market is affected for multiple reasons when the USD value of Solana changes. If the value dumps, NFT floor prices dump. If the value increased, the NFT floor prices still dump. This is because trading NFTs is a fickle risky bubble we all live in. Investors get scared with each dump as the FUD surrounding Solana becomes ever more real. So, investors floor the NFTs hoping for a quick sale but end up undercutting each other until the floor is ruined, usually, this is followed by a quick bounce as the diamond handers see this as a flash sale to buy more of the projects, they believe in. On the reverse, when the USD value increased, many investors see this as an opportunity to cash in on their investment. Realize the gains as it is also known. This is a situation that hasn’t happened for a very long time, the NFT market has dropped while Sol’s value has increased. Suddenly NFTs are seen as ‘more expensive’.
When you zoom out, you understand that emotional trading is what causes this effect. The euphoria of the USD profits rising of the fear of Solana crashing and burning causes some irrational thinking. But it is completely normal! We have had a great bull run in NFTs since the start of December, every bull run is met with a small retracement. Usually caused by something larger than the ecosystem itself.
Bear markets are there to weed out the paper handers, the non-believers. The diamond handers will keep accumulating the projects they believe in. When the mini bull run starts again we will see another stream of new investors and the cycle repeats. I’ve seen 3 cycles have the same pattern. As the USD value of Solana increased, NFT floor prices will adjust accordingly. When the USD value stabilises, NFT floor prices will catch up and level off.
TA - Toolbox Talk
In this edition, we are going to be using all the tools we have learnt so far to paint a picture. I’ve been looking forward to this one.
To recap, we will be using the following tools and indicators to further our technical analysis knowledge:
Support & Resistance Levels
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Listings Count
Before we just into the examples, we need to understand how these indicators work together and what to look out for. These three indicators are good individually but mixed are great. They will help to find optimal entry and exit levels with reassurance. Using a mixture of indicators to verify your initial reaction is key to becoming a great trader and removing emotion from your trading.
The most important part of trading, in my opinion, is knowing when to enter a trade. Finding the optimal entry point with the lowest downside risk. We want to identify key support levels first. To identify the price point at which the buyers are stepping in and buying previously. Once marked out this is the area, I want to buy in. Once the price is within 10% of this area, I then need to verify using the other indicators whether the price action is going to continue dropping or looking to bounce. This is where RSI comes into play, I want to see the RSI under 30 in an ideal scenario, but if the project has got momentum seeing a constant retracement from overbought back to 50 is a good sign. If the price is in the zone but RSI has yet to cross that 30 mark, I am hesitant as the asset is not oversold yet. I will also use the listing count to verify. If the listings have been increasing continuously with very little downward pressure, this is a signal that the sellers have not finished selling and the bottom is not in. If the listings count has increased, but the overall trend is still downwards over time or the listings count is falling dramatically, that is a buy signal.
An ideal trade is the following setup:
Price at support level
RSI under 30
Listings count dropping
When it comes to exiting a trade, there are two strategies. To list the NFT ahead of time and leave it or to wait until the market conditions are right then list and sell in a short window of time. The first strategy is to list the NFT ahead of time in the hope to sell in the next pump. For this, you just need to plot out your resistance levels. You can see previously where the strong resistance level was before the price was rejected. Once you find this you don’t want to list the NFT at that level as the resistance level is the point there are no buyers left to purchase your NFT. You want to list around 10% below the level to ensure a successful trade.
The second strategy is the wait for the market conditions to be correct. When you see a project break a resistance level and enter price discovery mode there is no indication as to where the next resistance level might be. You could miss out on profits by listing too early, in this case, you want to watch the RSI and listings count. When the RSI goes over 70 and is overbought that is the major signal to think about listing your NFT. If the listings count is increasing fast, then you may be too late as other sellers have the same idea. You want to sell when RSI goes above 70 but listings are still going down. This is extremely hard to time and takes a lot of experience and knowledge to achieve.
Let me show you some examples from real trades and alpha calls I have made.
At the time I was watching Jelly Rascals like a hawk waiting for the bottom to form. Jelly Rascals were having the ‘Alter Ego’ mint at the time increasing the supply by two-fold causing the price to be extremely suppressed until the increased supply was fully minted out. I waited until the mint was almost finished before analysing fully. You can see the listings count flat-lining for a long while, once the price broke below the phycological level of 10 Sol I had a feeling the bottom was close. RSI fell below the oversold level giving me my first bullish indicator. At the same time, the price action went from extremely volatile to a gentle curve. Listings continued to increase until they hit a peak.
The support level was confirmed multiple times and with RSI flatlining under the oversold mark, it was obvious this was an optimal entry with minimal downside risk. From there the listings fell dramatically and RSI pumped and dumped along with the price. This project is a long hold for me, I had no way to know if that bottom was it, but all the indicators told me it was close, and being prepared to buy more as the price goes down is a fundamental strategy if the core project is solid.
Taiyo Robotics is another great chart to analyse. We can put this on a larger time frame of 1 Day which makes the TA more manageable. As you can see the price has been range-riding for a very long time with listings holding low throughout 2022. The only two times RSI has breached that 30 level happens to coincide with a strong bounce off the 79 Sol support level. Incredible precision from the TA on this one! If you traded based on RSI alone and brought on the support level and sold into the resistance, those two trades would have made approximately 170 Solana, just buy using strict TA for entry and exit levels.
Gothic Degens was a great call I made in December. It’s an awesome example of how to use our tools and interpret different data to paint a picture. The first thing I saw was the price action wedging into the support level. Showing solid support has been formed. The RSI was bouncing off a trend line made many weeks before showing another sign of a change soon. The listings overall were still going down but nothing significant. But with the RSI slowly increasing over time, but the price action getting pulled back down to that 2.7 Sol support each time this was a great bullish divergence. For RSI to increase and price to continue stagnant is a catalyst for a big pump. With this trade, I pre-planned my exit based on a previous resistance level. Sure enough, the breakout happened fast with the RSI going in overbought very quickly giving ample time for an exit, or in my case, my pre-planned exit being hit perfectly.
Project Spotlight - Jelly eSports
I have been a fan of the Jelly eSports team for a long while now. They have a long history which I will briefly discuss before explaining the core of the project and where we are today. The Jelly eSports umbrella was originally derugged from a project called ‘Jelly Babies’. Carlos took over the project and began his master plan. Since then, the original NFTs have been burnt to create ‘Games Room’ assets which in turn a portion was burnt to create the project we know today called ‘Jelly Rascals’. Jelly Rascals underwent an ‘Alter Ego’ mint in mid-July increasing the supply from 3333 to 6666. You can stake your Rascals to earn 5 $JELLY per day, the native token for the entire ecosystem. During this entire process, a large portion of the Games Room was burnt, but not all of them, they now serve as a staking multiplier for the Rascals.
Later down the line, Jelly Dawgs were introduced as a free mint for Rascal holders. The purpose is to expand the Jelly DAO and increase the community size. With a bigger community, the project is stronger and busier than ever before. Originally Carlos said that the Dawgs would not gain any benefits and utility other than access to the Discord DAO. But he has hinted recently that something is ahead for them in terms of staking.
Another NFT they minted for free was ‘Infected Rascals’. A collab art by Infected Mob, essentially the Jelly Rascals characters with the amazing Infected art style. Another way for Carlos to reward holders without having to sell their Rascals. They have some utility that I will explain shortly.
The entire Jelly ecosystem is very complex with many different avenues being explored. But the crux of everything right now is building a fully on-chain, internationally licensed casino called GamBulls. This is one of the only casinos to be fully licensed internationally which is a huge achievement on its own. The revenue generated from the casino will be insane and in turn, the Rake back in profits will be used the purchase $JELLY off the market and lock it behind staking. There will also be huge benefits to holding a Rascal in the future directly related to the Casino business that has yet to be fully disclosed. The team have also developed a loot crate-type system in which users can gamble $Sol or $JELLY in the hope of winning incredible prizes. Everything from NFTs to real-life items. Now, all staked Rascals get a free spin each day with the opportunity to win 0,1 or 10 Solana daily.
Moreover, they have released a cosmetic store. This has unique 1/1 rascal skins for sale that can be purchased with a combination of $JELLY and burning several Infected Rascals. Their skins do not change the base rarity of the Rascal but are given the opportunity for holders to find an art style that truly represents themselves.
With the GamBulls casino only just being released, we are at the start of the long journey. I have just scratched the surface of the Jelly ecosystem and what it beholds. Once the marketing and advertising campaign start, I think we will start to see the true potential of the team behind Jelly eSports.
Summary
It’s been jam-packed once again this week, with a lot of information to digest. We have started to understand how the USD value of Solana can affect the market depending on the price increase of decreases. We used all the tools learnt so far to expand on our technical analysis knowledge and how to interpret data across three crucial indicators. Using all the indicators is extremely important, especially when entering a trade
Lastly, we researched an extremely promising project called Jelly eSports and explored what the team are developing and hoping to achieve. A future number-one project? Only time will tell.
Don't miss the next issue of ‘The Alpha Insight’ – your ultimate guide to NFTs on Solana. If you have any questions, comments, or requests, please don't hesitate to reach out to me on Twitter or Discord. I would love to hear from you and engage in meaningful conversations about NFT trading and investing on Solana. You can also follow my trades on Parrot Tools.
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SheenNFT – The Alpha Insight Newsletter #6 TA Toolbox – 16/01/2023
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Get ready for an exciting journey into the vibrant world of Solana NFTs! In this newsletter, I will delve deep into the alpha points of the Solana ecosystem and bring you exclusive interviews with key players within this space. I will provide you with expert technical and fundamental analysis to help you hone your trading skills and grow your knowledge of this dynamic space. Each newsletter will have a specific theme to keep you engaged and informed. Join me and discover the thrill of NFTs on Solana!
🛑This newsletter is for entertainment purposes only, none of this is financial advice🛑
Welcome to "The Alpha Insight," your go-to source for all things NFT trading and investing on Solana! This week we will be putting all the tools we have learnt into use and start charting out using all the knowledge we have learnt. We will also go over the basics of how the USD value of Sol affects the markets. But that's not all - we'll also be showcasing our "project of the week." Join me on this journey to becoming a master of NFT trading and investing.
(Download and view in PDF format for a better reading experience)
The Alpha Insight #6.pdf
Contents
1️⃣ Solana Price Action
2️⃣ TA - Toolbox
3️⃣ Project Spotlight - Jelly Rascals
4️⃣ Summary
Definitions
FOMO - The fear of missing out
Swing Trade - Shorter-term trading with the intent of buying low and selling high within an assets price trend.
Timeframe - The total time set for each candle’s duration.
Chart - A graphical representation of historical price movements.
TA - Technical Analysis
FA - Fundamental Analysis
AMA - Ask me anything
DYOR - Do your own research
DD - Due Diligence (Research)
Moon Bag - The intent of holding something in the hope the price increases drastically (Holding to the moon!)
Undercutting - The act of multiple people listing NFTs for less than the floor price in the hope of a quicker sale.
Solana Price Action - How it affects NFTs
In the last week, the market has gone from being extremely bullish to this strange cloud of neither bullish nor bearish. With the Solana USD value increasing rapidly, the NFT market seems to have taken a hit, but it can be a confusing time as to why this happens. If ‘1 Sol = 1 Sol’ then why do I have less Sol in my portfolio now than before? Let’s attempt to get an understanding of how all these pieces come together
I remember trading back when Solana was at $100. NFTs were still a thriving ecosystem with projects rising and falling. Since that time almost a year ago, all we have known is the macro bear market blues as Solana slowly fell to under $10. But I would argue that the ecosystem was stronger and bigger at $10 than it ever had been prior. Fast forward to now and the price has gone from $16 to $25 in 48 hours. A 47% increase in a short space of time affects the NFT market massively, but why?
The NFT market is affected for multiple reasons when the USD value of Solana changes. If the value dumps, NFT floor prices dump. If the value increased, the NFT floor prices still dump. This is because trading NFTs is a fickle risky bubble we all live in. Investors get scared with each dump as the FUD surrounding Solana becomes ever more real. So, investors floor the NFTs hoping for a quick sale but end up undercutting each other until the floor is ruined, usually, this is followed by a quick bounce as the diamond handers see this as a flash sale to buy more of the projects, they believe in. On the reverse, when the USD value increased, many investors see this as an opportunity to cash in on their investment. Realize the gains as it is also known. This is a situation that hasn’t happened for a very long time, the NFT market has dropped while Sol’s value has increased. Suddenly NFTs are seen as ‘more expensive’.
When you zoom out, you understand that emotional trading is what causes this effect. The euphoria of the USD profits rising of the fear of Solana crashing and burning causes some irrational thinking. But it is completely normal! We have had a great bull run in NFTs since the start of December, every bull run is met with a small retracement. Usually caused by something larger than the ecosystem itself.
Bear markets are there to weed out the paper handers, the non-believers. The diamond handers will keep accumulating the projects they believe in. When the mini bull run starts again we will see another stream of new investors and the cycle repeats. I’ve seen 3 cycles have the same pattern. As the USD value of Solana increased, NFT floor prices will adjust accordingly. When the USD value stabilises, NFT floor prices will catch up and level off.
TA - Toolbox Talk
In this edition, we are going to be using all the tools we have learnt so far to paint a picture. I’ve been looking forward to this one.
To recap, we will be using the following tools and indicators to further our technical analysis knowledge:
Support & Resistance Levels
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Listings Count
Before we just into the examples, we need to understand how these indicators work together and what to look out for. These three indicators are good individually but mixed are great. They will help to find optimal entry and exit levels with reassurance. Using a mixture of indicators to verify your initial reaction is key to becoming a great trader and removing emotion from your trading.
The most important part of trading, in my opinion, is knowing when to enter a trade. Finding the optimal entry point with the lowest downside risk. We want to identify key support levels first. To identify the price point at which the buyers are stepping in and buying previously. Once marked out this is the area, I want to buy in. Once the price is within 10% of this area, I then need to verify using the other indicators whether the price action is going to continue dropping or looking to bounce. This is where RSI comes into play, I want to see the RSI under 30 in an ideal scenario, but if the project has got momentum seeing a constant retracement from overbought back to 50 is a good sign. If the price is in the zone but RSI has yet to cross that 30 mark, I am hesitant as the asset is not oversold yet. I will also use the listing count to verify. If the listings have been increasing continuously with very little downward pressure, this is a signal that the sellers have not finished selling and the bottom is not in. If the listings count has increased, but the overall trend is still downwards over time or the listings count is falling dramatically, that is a buy signal.
An ideal trade is the following setup:
Price at support level
RSI under 30
Listings count dropping
When it comes to exiting a trade, there are two strategies. To list the NFT ahead of time and leave it or to wait until the market conditions are right then list and sell in a short window of time. The first strategy is to list the NFT ahead of time in the hope to sell in the next pump. For this, you just need to plot out your resistance levels. You can see previously where the strong resistance level was before the price was rejected. Once you find this you don’t want to list the NFT at that level as the resistance level is the point there are no buyers left to purchase your NFT. You want to list around 10% below the level to ensure a successful trade.
The second strategy is the wait for the market conditions to be correct. When you see a project break a resistance level and enter price discovery mode there is no indication as to where the next resistance level might be. You could miss out on profits by listing too early, in this case, you want to watch the RSI and listings count. When the RSI goes over 70 and is overbought that is the major signal to think about listing your NFT. If the listings count is increasing fast, then you may be too late as other sellers have the same idea. You want to sell when RSI goes above 70 but listings are still going down. This is extremely hard to time and takes a lot of experience and knowledge to achieve.
Let me show you some examples from real trades and alpha calls I have made.
Example 1
Project: Jelly Rascals
Time Frame: 4 Hours
Chart Link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/x9vogXjo/
At the time I was watching Jelly Rascals like a hawk waiting for the bottom to form. Jelly Rascals were having the ‘Alter Ego’ mint at the time increasing the supply by two-fold causing the price to be extremely suppressed until the increased supply was fully minted out. I waited until the mint was almost finished before analysing fully. You can see the listings count flat-lining for a long while, once the price broke below the phycological level of 10 Sol I had a feeling the bottom was close. RSI fell below the oversold level giving me my first bullish indicator. At the same time, the price action went from extremely volatile to a gentle curve. Listings continued to increase until they hit a peak.
The support level was confirmed multiple times and with RSI flatlining under the oversold mark, it was obvious this was an optimal entry with minimal downside risk. From there the listings fell dramatically and RSI pumped and dumped along with the price. This project is a long hold for me, I had no way to know if that bottom was it, but all the indicators told me it was close, and being prepared to buy more as the price goes down is a fundamental strategy if the core project is solid.
Example 2
Project: Taiyo Robotics
Time Frame: 1 Day
Chart Link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/9Y4T5G3g/
Taiyo Robotics is another great chart to analyse. We can put this on a larger time frame of 1 Day which makes the TA more manageable. As you can see the price has been range-riding for a very long time with listings holding low throughout 2022. The only two times RSI has breached that 30 level happens to coincide with a strong bounce off the 79 Sol support level. Incredible precision from the TA on this one! If you traded based on RSI alone and brought on the support level and sold into the resistance, those two trades would have made approximately 170 Solana, just buy using strict TA for entry and exit levels.
Example 3
Project: Gothic Degens
Time Frame: 1 Day
Chart Link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/S3iYZNrE/
Gothic Degens was a great call I made in December. It’s an awesome example of how to use our tools and interpret different data to paint a picture. The first thing I saw was the price action wedging into the support level. Showing solid support has been formed. The RSI was bouncing off a trend line made many weeks before showing another sign of a change soon. The listings overall were still going down but nothing significant. But with the RSI slowly increasing over time, but the price action getting pulled back down to that 2.7 Sol support each time this was a great bullish divergence. For RSI to increase and price to continue stagnant is a catalyst for a big pump. With this trade, I pre-planned my exit based on a previous resistance level. Sure enough, the breakout happened fast with the RSI going in overbought very quickly giving ample time for an exit, or in my case, my pre-planned exit being hit perfectly.
Project Spotlight - Jelly eSports
I have been a fan of the Jelly eSports team for a long while now. They have a long history which I will briefly discuss before explaining the core of the project and where we are today. The Jelly eSports umbrella was originally derugged from a project called ‘Jelly Babies’. Carlos took over the project and began his master plan. Since then, the original NFTs have been burnt to create ‘Games Room’ assets which in turn a portion was burnt to create the project we know today called ‘Jelly Rascals’. Jelly Rascals underwent an ‘Alter Ego’ mint in mid-July increasing the supply from 3333 to 6666. You can stake your Rascals to earn 5 $JELLY per day, the native token for the entire ecosystem. During this entire process, a large portion of the Games Room was burnt, but not all of them, they now serve as a staking multiplier for the Rascals.
Later down the line, Jelly Dawgs were introduced as a free mint for Rascal holders. The purpose is to expand the Jelly DAO and increase the community size. With a bigger community, the project is stronger and busier than ever before. Originally Carlos said that the Dawgs would not gain any benefits and utility other than access to the Discord DAO. But he has hinted recently that something is ahead for them in terms of staking.
Another NFT they minted for free was ‘Infected Rascals’. A collab art by Infected Mob, essentially the Jelly Rascals characters with the amazing Infected art style. Another way for Carlos to reward holders without having to sell their Rascals. They have some utility that I will explain shortly.
The entire Jelly ecosystem is very complex with many different avenues being explored. But the crux of everything right now is building a fully on-chain, internationally licensed casino called GamBulls. This is one of the only casinos to be fully licensed internationally which is a huge achievement on its own. The revenue generated from the casino will be insane and in turn, the Rake back in profits will be used the purchase $JELLY off the market and lock it behind staking. There will also be huge benefits to holding a Rascal in the future directly related to the Casino business that has yet to be fully disclosed. The team have also developed a loot crate-type system in which users can gamble $Sol or $JELLY in the hope of winning incredible prizes. Everything from NFTs to real-life items. Now, all staked Rascals get a free spin each day with the opportunity to win 0,1 or 10 Solana daily.
Moreover, they have released a cosmetic store. This has unique 1/1 rascal skins for sale that can be purchased with a combination of $JELLY and burning several Infected Rascals. Their skins do not change the base rarity of the Rascal but are given the opportunity for holders to find an art style that truly represents themselves.
With the GamBulls casino only just being released, we are at the start of the long journey. I have just scratched the surface of the Jelly ecosystem and what it beholds. Once the marketing and advertising campaign start, I think we will start to see the true potential of the team behind Jelly eSports.
Summary
It’s been jam-packed once again this week, with a lot of information to digest. We have started to understand how the USD value of Solana can affect the market depending on the price increase of decreases. We used all the tools learnt so far to expand on our technical analysis knowledge and how to interpret data across three crucial indicators. Using all the indicators is extremely important, especially when entering a trade
Lastly, we researched an extremely promising project called Jelly eSports and explored what the team are developing and hoping to achieve. A future number-one project? Only time will tell.
Don't miss the next issue of ‘The Alpha Insight’ – your ultimate guide to NFTs on Solana. If you have any questions, comments, or requests, please don't hesitate to reach out to me on Twitter or Discord. I would love to hear from you and engage in meaningful conversations about NFT trading and investing on Solana. You can also follow my trades on Parrot Tools.
Twitter: https://twitter.com/SheenNFT
Discord: Sheen#0001
Email: SheenNFT@gmail.com
Parrot Tools: https://www.parrottrading.com/app/traders
Tips: 5opuxDkk3WJ1ajwBGrSKzbMkikrfsLaaPLbZriB4qiwa (Solana)