Get ready for an exciting journey into the vibrant world of Solana NFTs! In this newsletter, I will delve deep into the alpha points of the Solana ecosystem and bring you exclusive interviews with key players within this space. I will provide you with expert technical and fundamental analysis to help you hone your trading skills and grow your knowledge of this dynamic space. Each newsletter will have a specific theme to keep you engaged and informed. Join me and discover the thrill of NFTs on Solana!
šThis newsletter is for entertainment purposes only, none of this is financial adviceš
Welcome to "The Alpha Insight," your go-to source for all things NFT trading and investing on Solana! This week we will be diving into how to effectively navigate a bear market. We will also go over some more TA charts using our three crucial indicators. But that's not all - we'll also be showcasing our "project of the week." Join me on this journey to becoming a master of NFT trading and investing.
(Download and view in PDF format for a better reading experience)
Swing Trade - Shorter-term trading with the intent of buying low and selling high within an assets price trend.
Timeframe - The total time set for each candleās duration.
Chart - A graphical representation of historical price movements.
TA - Technical Analysis
FA - Fundamental Analysis
AMA - Ask me anything
DYOR - Do your own research
DD - Due Diligence (Research)
Moon Bag - The intent of holding something in the hope the price increases drastically (Holding to the moon!)
Undercutting - The act of multiple people listing NFTs for less than the floor price in the hope of a quicker sale.
Navigating Bear Markets - Learning the Basics
It feels like the bear market blues are upon us. With Solana USD value increasing the NFT market has taken a dip. The NFT market moves much faster than any other asset class but this means we experience bear markets more frequently. In the past year, I have noticed a rough pattern of 2 month bears with 1 month bull. With December being a phenomenal month for NFTs we were due a retracement. But why were we due a retracement?
With so many projects going up in floor price, the number of profits floating in the system can be exponential. The problem with a thriving bull market is that a lot of Solana is being lost into the system on projects that are not sustainable or projects that will inevitably rug. A bear market weeds out the trash to let the real building project flourish next run around. As profits are taken across the board the market will readjust itself ready for the next run-up. Unsustainable projects are hit the hardest, with floor prices dropping so low that the team may not be able to afford the upkeep for much longer.
This is an important lesson to tell yourself, bear markets are healthy! I make most of my profits from bear market trading. But how is this possible? Making money when every NFT is dropping in floor price doesnāt seem possible. Let me show you how I navigate through this tough time.
When a bear market hits, I always get caught by surprise. I am always unprepared for the matter, but I follow the same strategy each time. My number one strategy is to pick the winners. Find the projects that you love. If you can tell another person why that project is the best, why they will survive, and what they are building will change the game then you have found your winner. Once you have a list of winners, you want to watch the market carefully. Prices will always drop lower than you expect. You want to enter trades as close to the bottom as possible. You will find during this market that Discord chats will become quiet, and your Twitter feeds will be bare. With the opportunistic profit-hungry people now gone, the bare-bones die-hard community is left. Once the pain of watching your portfolio crumble in value starts to hit hard, the bottom is nearby.
Once the bottom is in this is the next step, accumulate your winners. Start entering trades on your winners. You will never have time to bottom perfectly but average your buying. This seems easier said than done, but if you believe the project will survive and is not undervalued, you have entered the lowest-risk trade you possibly can. This will take time, a lot of timeā¦ I suggest putting that time to use and starting to learn. Judging by the fact you are reading this you are already willing to learn. Start back charting some NFTs and read everything you possibly can on trading. Just brush up on your skills instead of twiddling your thumbs refreshing MagicEden every five minutes (yes, I know you do that too!)
This is just a quick overview of my stance on a bear market. This is an opportunity to be prepared for when the trend reverses.
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TA - Toolbox Refresh
TA - Toolbox Refresh
Last week we covered how to use all three tools and indicators to start charting. Usually, I would move on to a new topic, tool, or indicator. But with the sentiment now, I think it is important to refresh the knowledge once again. Repetition is key after all. So below I will show some examples of using TA to identify entry and exit levels. For a quick recap, we will be using support and resistance levels, listings count and RSI.
Learning a new skill can take months to get to grips with. I didn't wake up one day with the ability to chart out patterns and lines, took me a long time to understand candle patterns and trends. I'm still learning even today. But in every bear market, I see an opportunity to hone these skills.
My beloved Cets on Creck, the project that propelled my trading journey. Right now, Cets is resting on a support level that has shown previous strength over a long time. RSI has fallen all the way down and bounced off the 30 levels. However, listings have not stopped climbing yet.
There is a lower support level on the 15 Sol mark that looks promising to me as a trader. With RSI bouncing but still down trending I donāt see a reversal until the 30 levels is breached. With this breach, I would anticipate the floor price going near that lower support. I will be watching the listings count closely to see if we have hit peak listings. My buy zone would be between 15-19 looking at the chart right now. Cets may be one big hype train, but they have great community sentiment that will keep driving them forwards.
A project that started to pick up steam nearer the end of the bull market, they have levelled out nicely now. They have an options trading platform soon to be released which may have ties with Hadeswap. The sentiment around these is very bullish which makes them a āwinnerā project.
With the floor price currently hovering above a support level, RSI waiting in the middle and listings counting flat lining, this makes for an interesting setup. With bullish sentiment behind the project, I see this support level as a strong bottom. I would like to see the RSI at least bounce off that 30 levels before climbing higher. Listings are near a local peak level. If RSI does dip down to 30, I see a solid bounce off that support level before pushing up to the resistance shortly after.
Stallions have an interesting chart right now. The floor price dropped quickly suddenly with the RSI dipping below 30 before bouncing sharply. Listings have been on a steady rise also. The interesting part is the support level formed is the previous resistance level from late December. This a perfect example of resistance flipping to support once broken. With RSI breaching 30 once at the support level, I see this as a possible local bottom. The total listings count is low which means less volatility in price overall. A chart worth watching in the future.
Project Spotlight - DEGEN NEWS
This project was minted recently and received a large amount of FUD in the process. Degen News is a Twitter account with a huge following in which they share the latest breaking news on Solana. Everything from project updates to influencer stand-offs. They receive an insane number of interactions and exposure. When the mint first happened, the FUD was around the idea that the team were money-grabbing with no real plan. Just trying to earn something from the following they had gained. But since minting out they have released a very interesting idea that has made me very bullish.
Later down the line, Jelly Dawgs were introduced as a free mint for Rascal holders. The purpose is to expand the Jelly DAO and increase the community size. With a bigger community, the project is stronger and busier than ever before. Originally Carlos said that the Dawgs would not gain any benefits and utility other than access to the Discord DAO. But he has hinted recently that something is ahead for them in terms of staking.
They will be releasing a 'report-to-earn' system. No exact information has been provided regarding how this will work but the idea intrigues me. Take this example, I write this newsletter, but my exposure is low. Degen News have high exposure by no writers. You join the two together and you get a perfect match, great writers gaining that exposure and being rewarded in the process.
In November 2022 they received 16.7 million impressions (views) on their tweets. That huge exposure is worth a lot of money to marketers and advertisers. Compare it to TombRaid for example. Paying approx' 10 Sol to have a tweet raided gains approx' 30k views on the tweet. Using quick maths, that makes Degen News impressions worth 550 Solana.
10 Sol = 30k Views; 16,700k / 30k = 556 Sol valuation
This a project that I am extremely bullish on and once the report to earn is released the value will be realized. My logical brain tells me that there are projects worse off than DEGEN NEWS that currently have a higher price tag. Meaning that DEGEN NEWS is undervalued, or the other projects are overvalued.
Summary
Summary
This edition has been a slightly different flavour from the usual releases but learning how to navigate a bear market is an extremely important aspect of trading. It can seem scary at first with many unknowns to follow. But having conviction in the market is the exact reason we are here right now. Find the winners and have the conviction that the market will return, like every other time it has before.
Donāt forget to keep your TA skills fresh in your mind, times like this are perfect for practising. TA will help you find optimal entry into great projects such as DEGEN NEWS. I think they are a winning project, but when is it best to enter the trade? Use some TA and see if you can figure out the lowest risk entry.
Don't miss the next issue of āThe Alpha Insightā ā your ultimate guide to NFTs on Solana. If you have any questions, comments, or requests, please don't hesitate to reach out to me on Twitter or Discord. I would love to hear from you and engage in meaningful conversations about NFT trading and investing on Solana. You can also follow my trades on Parrot Tools.
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Educational Alpha Insight #7 - Navigating Bear Markets
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Get ready for an exciting journey into the vibrant world of Solana NFTs! In this newsletter, I will delve deep into the alpha points of the Solana ecosystem and bring you exclusive interviews with key players within this space. I will provide you with expert technical and fundamental analysis to help you hone your trading skills and grow your knowledge of this dynamic space. Each newsletter will have a specific theme to keep you engaged and informed. Join me and discover the thrill of NFTs on Solana!
šThis newsletter is for entertainment purposes only, none of this is financial adviceš
Welcome to "The Alpha Insight," your go-to source for all things NFT trading and investing on Solana! This week we will be diving into how to effectively navigate a bear market. We will also go over some more TA charts using our three crucial indicators. But that's not all - we'll also be showcasing our "project of the week." Join me on this journey to becoming a master of NFT trading and investing.
(Download and view in PDF format for a better reading experience)
The Alpha Insight #7.pdf
Contents
1ļøā£ Navigating Bear Markets
2ļøā£ TA - Toolbox
3ļøā£ Project Spotlight - DEGEN NEWS
4ļøā£ Summary
Definitions
FOMO - The fear of missing out
Swing Trade - Shorter-term trading with the intent of buying low and selling high within an assets price trend.
Timeframe - The total time set for each candleās duration.
Chart - A graphical representation of historical price movements.
TA - Technical Analysis
FA - Fundamental Analysis
AMA - Ask me anything
DYOR - Do your own research
DD - Due Diligence (Research)
Moon Bag - The intent of holding something in the hope the price increases drastically (Holding to the moon!)
Undercutting - The act of multiple people listing NFTs for less than the floor price in the hope of a quicker sale.
Navigating Bear Markets - Learning the Basics
It feels like the bear market blues are upon us. With Solana USD value increasing the NFT market has taken a dip. The NFT market moves much faster than any other asset class but this means we experience bear markets more frequently. In the past year, I have noticed a rough pattern of 2 month bears with 1 month bull. With December being a phenomenal month for NFTs we were due a retracement. But why were we due a retracement?
With so many projects going up in floor price, the number of profits floating in the system can be exponential. The problem with a thriving bull market is that a lot of Solana is being lost into the system on projects that are not sustainable or projects that will inevitably rug. A bear market weeds out the trash to let the real building project flourish next run around. As profits are taken across the board the market will readjust itself ready for the next run-up. Unsustainable projects are hit the hardest, with floor prices dropping so low that the team may not be able to afford the upkeep for much longer.
This is an important lesson to tell yourself, bear markets are healthy! I make most of my profits from bear market trading. But how is this possible? Making money when every NFT is dropping in floor price doesnāt seem possible. Let me show you how I navigate through this tough time.
When a bear market hits, I always get caught by surprise. I am always unprepared for the matter, but I follow the same strategy each time. My number one strategy is to pick the winners. Find the projects that you love. If you can tell another person why that project is the best, why they will survive, and what they are building will change the game then you have found your winner. Once you have a list of winners, you want to watch the market carefully. Prices will always drop lower than you expect. You want to enter trades as close to the bottom as possible. You will find during this market that Discord chats will become quiet, and your Twitter feeds will be bare. With the opportunistic profit-hungry people now gone, the bare-bones die-hard community is left. Once the pain of watching your portfolio crumble in value starts to hit hard, the bottom is nearby.
Once the bottom is in this is the next step, accumulate your winners. Start entering trades on your winners. You will never have time to bottom perfectly but average your buying. This seems easier said than done, but if you believe the project will survive and is not undervalued, you have entered the lowest-risk trade you possibly can. This will take time, a lot of timeā¦ I suggest putting that time to use and starting to learn. Judging by the fact you are reading this you are already willing to learn. Start back charting some NFTs and read everything you possibly can on trading. Just brush up on your skills instead of twiddling your thumbs refreshing MagicEden every five minutes (yes, I know you do that too!)
This is just a quick overview of my stance on a bear market. This is an opportunity to be prepared for when the trend reverses.
TA - Toolbox Refresh
TA - Toolbox Refresh
Last week we covered how to use all three tools and indicators to start charting. Usually, I would move on to a new topic, tool, or indicator. But with the sentiment now, I think it is important to refresh the knowledge once again. Repetition is key after all. So below I will show some examples of using TA to identify entry and exit levels. For a quick recap, we will be using support and resistance levels, listings count and RSI.
Learning a new skill can take months to get to grips with. I didn't wake up one day with the ability to chart out patterns and lines, took me a long time to understand candle patterns and trends. I'm still learning even today. But in every bear market, I see an opportunity to hone these skills.
Example 1
Project: Cets on Creck
Time Frame: 1 Day
Chart Link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/JTVaKaPH/
My beloved Cets on Creck, the project that propelled my trading journey. Right now, Cets is resting on a support level that has shown previous strength over a long time. RSI has fallen all the way down and bounced off the 30 levels. However, listings have not stopped climbing yet.
There is a lower support level on the 15 Sol mark that looks promising to me as a trader. With RSI bouncing but still down trending I donāt see a reversal until the 30 levels is breached. With this breach, I would anticipate the floor price going near that lower support. I will be watching the listings count closely to see if we have hit peak listings. My buy zone would be between 15-19 looking at the chart right now. Cets may be one big hype train, but they have great community sentiment that will keep driving them forwards.
Example 2
Project: Future Traders
Time Frame: 4 Hours
Chart Link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/0Vv4oD6T/
A project that started to pick up steam nearer the end of the bull market, they have levelled out nicely now. They have an options trading platform soon to be released which may have ties with Hadeswap. The sentiment around these is very bullish which makes them a āwinnerā project.
With the floor price currently hovering above a support level, RSI waiting in the middle and listings counting flat lining, this makes for an interesting setup. With bullish sentiment behind the project, I see this support level as a strong bottom. I would like to see the RSI at least bounce off that 30 levels before climbing higher. Listings are near a local peak level. If RSI does dip down to 30, I see a solid bounce off that support level before pushing up to the resistance shortly after.
Example 3
Project: Stallions
Time Frame: 4 Hours
Chart Link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/pKFo9lVs/
Stallions have an interesting chart right now. The floor price dropped quickly suddenly with the RSI dipping below 30 before bouncing sharply. Listings have been on a steady rise also. The interesting part is the support level formed is the previous resistance level from late December. This a perfect example of resistance flipping to support once broken. With RSI breaching 30 once at the support level, I see this as a possible local bottom. The total listings count is low which means less volatility in price overall. A chart worth watching in the future.
Project Spotlight - DEGEN NEWS
This project was minted recently and received a large amount of FUD in the process. Degen News is a Twitter account with a huge following in which they share the latest breaking news on Solana. Everything from project updates to influencer stand-offs. They receive an insane number of interactions and exposure. When the mint first happened, the FUD was around the idea that the team were money-grabbing with no real plan. Just trying to earn something from the following they had gained. But since minting out they have released a very interesting idea that has made me very bullish.
Later down the line, Jelly Dawgs were introduced as a free mint for Rascal holders. The purpose is to expand the Jelly DAO and increase the community size. With a bigger community, the project is stronger and busier than ever before. Originally Carlos said that the Dawgs would not gain any benefits and utility other than access to the Discord DAO. But he has hinted recently that something is ahead for them in terms of staking.
They will be releasing a 'report-to-earn' system. No exact information has been provided regarding how this will work but the idea intrigues me. Take this example, I write this newsletter, but my exposure is low. Degen News have high exposure by no writers. You join the two together and you get a perfect match, great writers gaining that exposure and being rewarded in the process.
In November 2022 they received 16.7 million impressions (views) on their tweets. That huge exposure is worth a lot of money to marketers and advertisers. Compare it to TombRaid for example. Paying approx' 10 Sol to have a tweet raided gains approx' 30k views on the tweet. Using quick maths, that makes Degen News impressions worth 550 Solana.
10 Sol = 30k Views; 16,700k / 30k = 556 Sol valuation
This a project that I am extremely bullish on and once the report to earn is released the value will be realized. My logical brain tells me that there are projects worse off than DEGEN NEWS that currently have a higher price tag. Meaning that DEGEN NEWS is undervalued, or the other projects are overvalued.
Summary
Summary
This edition has been a slightly different flavour from the usual releases but learning how to navigate a bear market is an extremely important aspect of trading. It can seem scary at first with many unknowns to follow. But having conviction in the market is the exact reason we are here right now. Find the winners and have the conviction that the market will return, like every other time it has before.
Donāt forget to keep your TA skills fresh in your mind, times like this are perfect for practising. TA will help you find optimal entry into great projects such as DEGEN NEWS. I think they are a winning project, but when is it best to enter the trade? Use some TA and see if you can figure out the lowest risk entry.
Don't miss the next issue of āThe Alpha Insightā ā your ultimate guide to NFTs on Solana. If you have any questions, comments, or requests, please don't hesitate to reach out to me on Twitter or Discord. I would love to hear from you and engage in meaningful conversations about NFT trading and investing on Solana. You can also follow my trades on Parrot Tools.
Twitter: https://twitter.com/SheenNFT
Discord: Sheen#0001
Email: SheenNFT@gmail.com
Parrot Tools: https://www.parrottrading.com/app/traders
Tips: 5opuxDkk3WJ1ajwBGrSKzbMkikrfsLaaPLbZriB4qiwa (Solana)
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